Dynamic modeling of multi-regional migration processes: Ural federal district case study

Abstract

This article presents a dynamic model, that describes the labor force movement dynamics between Russian regions in continues time. The conducted analysis shows that migration model usually doesn't take into account more than two regions of migration and take into account a very limited number of resulting factors. The presented modification our model allows to explain the dynamics of migration processes and their effects on regional economics both for regions of origin and attraction. The results of migration modeling in conditions of a closed system is presented on a graph and makes it possible to trace dependency between salaries levels, total labor force and the number of vacancies and unemployed people in several regions. Further research is planned to develop a model in terms of constructing unemployment and vacancies forecast and to create a model with elements of agent-based modeling to assess the impact of migration networks on the dynamics of inter-regional migration flows. © 2015, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.