Modeling the dynamics of passenger traffic in road transport for the regional road network

Abstract

Problems of modeling seasonality in the study of the temporal distribution of passenger traffic in road transport according to the daily data on the example of the Sverdlovsk region for the period February-November 2021 are considered in the article. The use of a statistical approach based on adaptive models made it possible to obtain an adequate model with good statistical and predictive properties. Algorithms for constructing the Holt-Winters model and its software implementation in Python are considered. The indicators studied in the work had a number of features that were taken into account in the modeling. Point and interval estimates of the forecast of passenger traffic for December 2021 were found. © 2023 Author(s).