Modeling of the impact of migration attractiveness on the labor migration dynamics

Abstract

The analysis of migration processes shows the need to simulate the dynamics of migration flows, to describe the trends in the redistribution of labor in the current period and to forecast for the short term. To estimate and predict labor migration flows in terms of different levels of the labor markets development we elaborated a dynamic multi-factor migration model. The model takes into account the assumptions of the positional games theory, which allows predicting the behavior of a potential migrant, depending on an amount of socio-economic factors. We emphasize, that labor migration is one of the major factors in the development of the labor markets and in the redistribution of qualified workforce between them. To ensure sustainable development and economic growth of socio-economic systems the inflow of migrants into a region should correspond to the labor resources demand of the labor market. According to the model idea, potential migrants have full information about the difference in living and working conditions both in the countries of origin and attraction of migrants, which allows describing the decision-making process in the model. To improve the predictive accuracy of the model, we developed a method of assessing the migration attractiveness of the region, based on the principle of differentiation of regional economic systems by the level of socio-economic benefits. We obtain the synthetic parameter of the model, describing the migration attractiveness of the region, by combining socio-economic indicators in a relative form, reflecting the degree of development of the social system and the labor market in the region. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.