Влияние импорта на динамику развития обрабатывающей промышленности региона

Abstract

The aim of the study is to identify regions with the highest dependence on imports and assess the impact of imports on the dynamics of the manufacturing industrys growth. The methodological framework of the study involves the use of wellknown processing methods of regional static data. The paper presents an empirical study of imports volume and structure in the regional manufacturing industry for the period from 2005 to 2014, and groups them on the basis of the assessment of sustainability indicators. At the regional level, intermediate imports are characterized by a high heterogeneity both in absolute and relative terms. The significant volumes of imports are concentrated in few regions with a high industrial concentration. It allows to allocate regions with the greatest risks for the manufacturing sector in negative external environment. The study demonstrates the relationship of the intermediate imports with the growth dynamics of the manufacturing industry in a certain set of macroeconomic conditions, assuming the economic growth with the stable exchange rate and relatively high growth rate of the producer prices on the domestic market. We also found a positive impact of imports on the growth rate of manufacturing industry in this period due to the effects of market substitution. Thus, the limitation of import substitution in specialized regions at preservation of the basic external factors is emphasized. The obtained results can be used for strategic planning at various levels of management, defining the model and direction for growth of the industrial sector of the region and improving the methodological tools for further empirical research.

Представлено наличие взаимосвязи использования промежуточного импорта и динамики развития обрабатывающей промышленности в определенной совокупности макроэкономических параметров. Выявлена положительная взаимосвязь импорта промежуточной продукции и темпов роста обрабатывающей промышленности.