Оценка рисков, влияющих на благосостояние регионов

Abstract

The article analyses the urgent problem of assessing the risks of decline in individual’s welfare in a region. The welfare is determined by the level of development of productive forces, the nature of production relations and the level of production of goods and services. We identified the risks that decrease individual’s welfare in a region. We chose the reproduction approach, which combines resource and consumer approaches to welfare, as our theoretical platform for studying the risks of decline in individual’s welfare. This approach is linked with the phases of the reproduction cycle: production, distribution, exchange and consumption. The risks may arise in any of these phases. We assessed the risks of decline in individual’s welfare in a region by calculating the integral risk. In 2018, the integral risk in the Ural Federal District corresponded with the zone of middle risk. Our study aims at identifying the risk factors that lead to falling into certain zones of risk. We substantiated the decision to study only two zones of risk: high and critical ones. As a result of the assessment of the probability contribution, we discovered that the indicators “real incomes of the population” and “industrial production index” make the greatest probability contribution to falling into the zones of critical and high risk in all subjects of the Ural Federal District. The findings can be used for developing an effective system of risk management system at the regional level based on formulating the strategies and programs. © 2019 Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Проанализирована классификация рисков снижения благосостояния личности в регионе. Дана характеристика зон риска в методике оценки уровня интегрального риска. Представлены результаты расчета интегрального риска на территории Уральского федерального округа.