Risk-oriented approach to competition assessment in the global renewable energy sources market

Abstract

The growing pace of renewable energy development favors a significant change in global energy market conditions. This is due to the crisis of traditional energy, the emergence of new energy sources and arrival of new market players. As a result, forecasting the state of the energy market and assessing the potential of individual regions in terms of the development of renewable energy sources (RES) is becoming quite a difficult task. The article presents a structural analysis of the global energy market in the aspect of studying the dynamics of new capacity and actual production of renewable energy by country and type of energy sources. As a result of the analysis, the author has grouped countries participating in the market on the basis of indicator values reached: front-runners, average performers and stragglers. The author presents an approach for assessing competition in the global renewable energy market – a “thermometer” of competition. Its features include assessment of aggregate specific risk that is unique for each energy market country-member. The final assessment of the “temperature” in the global energy market is based on taking into account the total aggregate risk in one of the three zones of the “thermometer” scale. The results of the study will be used for improving the presented approach, developing an integrated methodology for the ranking of regions in the energy market, and the practice-based assessment of competition in the global market of renewable energy, taking into account the potential of individual participants. © 2018 WIT Press.