Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/75306
Title: Imitation forecast of railway system operation in a macroregion
Authors: Dobrodey, V. V.
Gitelman, L. D.
Kozhevnikov, M. V.
Matushkina, N. A.
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: WITPress
Citation: Imitation forecast of railway system operation in a macroregion / V. V. Dobrodey, L. D. Gitelman, M. V. Kozhevnikov et al. // International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning. — 2018. — Vol. 13. — Iss. 5. — P. 805-817.
Abstract: The article describes an analytical and information system that was used for forecasting the operation parameters of the railway system in a macroregion of Russia - the Far North. Its economy is focused on the extraction and processing of hydrocarbons, metal production, construction materials, and generate large volumes of exports and inter-regional cargo flows. The region covers an expansive territory and is characterized by harsh weather, an extreme environment, and uneven development of the transportation network. Research into the transportation issues of economic development in such areas presents a challenging task because the region is unique, statistical data are incomplete and classified; there is a hierarchy of businesses and organizations operating in the region that have their own goals and objectives and compete against its other; the region is plagued with social and environmental problems and a lack of administrative integration between individual districts. Using rigorous mathematical tools for assessing transportation infrastructure projects under such conditions is only limited to finding solutions to stand-alone problems and scenario comparison. A model of the applied system that is outlined in the article makes it possible to analyze specific projects of regional railway system development that take into account strategic priorities and goals of the state, social and economic development problems experienced by the neighboring regions, the oil and gas sector and major employers, as well as corporate goals of the sustainable development of railway companies. The application of the model over an extended period of time showed that the analysis of the structure of cargo flows and customers bound to junctions of the transportation network makes it possible to suggest what aspects of the railway infrastructure should be reorganized in line with the development dynamics of economic entities that consume transportation services. The study is built upon a number of projects that were implemented in the north of Tyumen Region and the Yamal- Nenets and Khanty-Mansi autonomous areas of Russia. © 2018 WIT Press.
Keywords: AGGREGATED CARGO FLOWS
BALANCE
CARGO CORRESPONDENCE
DYNAMICS
EFFICIENCY
FORECAST
MODEL
REGION
RESILIENCE
TERRITORIAL COMPLEX
UNCERTAINTY
BALANCING
DYNAMICS
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS
ECONOMICS
EFFICIENCY
FORECASTING
GAS INDUSTRY
MODELS
OIL FIELD DEVELOPMENT
RAILROADS
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
AGGREGATED CARGO FLOWS
CARGO CORRESPONDENCE
REGION
RESILIENCE
TERRITORIAL COMPLEX
UNCERTAINTY
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION
CARGO
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
EFFICIENCY MEASUREMENT
FORECASTING METHOD
MODEL
RAILWAY TRANSPORT
STRATEGIC APPROACH
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
TERRITORIALITY
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
UNCERTAINTY ROLE
UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT
KHANTY-MANSI
NENETS
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
TYUMEN
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/75306
Access: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
RSCI ID: 35774215
SCOPUS ID: 85049338424
PURE ID: 7637665
ISSN: 1743-7601
DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V13-N5-805-817
metadata.dc.description.sponsorship: ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract № 02.A03.21.0006.
Appears in Collections:Научные публикации, проиндексированные в SCOPUS и WoS CC

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