Development of a Methodology for the Economic Assessment of Managerial Decisions as a Factor of Increased Economic Security

Abstract

The article notes that the emergence of such a phenomenon as the interdependence of security and development, the so-called security-development nexus, becomes a determinant during the development of strategic documents at all hierarchical levels. It gives relevance to the search for methodological solutions that would on a strategic level take into account any potential threats to economic security, and on a tactical level provide for pragmatic actions that are not in conflict with the strategic development vector of business entities. The authors identify the instability factors that pose a real threat to economic security. They substantiate the expediency of forming a new model of the national economy development with a focal point on new industrialization. The article factors in the most important trends in the development of the global economy that determine the strategic vector of enhancing the economic security in Russia. It is ascertained that in the conditions of new industrialization, the intellectual core of the high-tech economy sector is formed by convergent technologies (NBICS technologies). The authors offer a methodological approach to the economic assessment of managerial decisions in the context of uncertainty. They also identify methodological principles that must be taken into account in developing a modern methodology for the economic assessment of business decisions. The principles include forming a preferred reality, or the so-called “vision of the future,” the priority of network solutions as the basis for the formation of new markets; mass customization and individualization of demands, principal changes in the profile of competences that ensure competitiveness on the labor market, use of the ideology of inclusive development and impact investment that creates common values. The proposed methodology is based on the optimum combination of traditional methods used for the economic assessment of managerial decisions with the method of real options and reflexive assessments with regard to entropy as a measure of uncertainty. The proposed methodological approach has been tested in respect of the Ural mining and metallurgical complex.