Analysis of the Impact of EU-US Economic Sanctions on SINO–Russian Agricultural Trade

Abstract

Based on the trade gravity model and international trade theory, this paper analyzes the time-series data on Sino-Russian agricultural trade from 2000 to 2023 in the United Nations Comtrade database. The analysis finds that despite the pressure of EU-US economic sanctions, Sino-Russian agricultural trade has shown a continuous rise, but the trade deficit in Sino-Russian agricultural trade has also accelerated with the growth of Sino-Russian agricultural trade. At the same time, the geopolitical risk index was introduced to quantitatively assess the intensity of EU-US economic sanctions, and it was incorporated into the trade gravity model for empirical analysis. The results show that, contrary to expectations, EU-US economic sanctions have a positive impact on the total volume of Sino-Russian agricultural trade, and among all influencing variables, the impact of EU-US economic sanctions is the most significant, which provides good empirical evidence for explaining why Sino-Russian agricultural trade has strengthened after EU-US economic sanctions.