Exploring Fertility Dynamics and Factors Shaping Russia’s Demographic Prospects

Abstract

The research examines fertility patterns in Russia by using current calendar birth rates and their implications for actual generations. Birth rates for these generations are derived from the 2020 Census data and are further refined through calculations employing one-year agespecific rates. This methodology allows us to estimate parameters for age-specific fertility models in real generations, offering a different approach compared to traditional population census methods. Given the variance in fertility rates by birth order, the analysis favors a segmented approach, separately considering trends for first, second, third, and subsequent births. Factors influencing fertility are examined both statistically, with a focus on the impact of population age–gender structure transformations on overall fertility rates, and through insights from Vyborochnoe nabliudenie reproduktivnykh planov naseleniia [Sample Observation of Population Reproductive Plans] performed by Rosstat [Federal State Statistics Service] in 2022. Value orientations are the primary determinant in reproductive behavior, which means that a key goal of demographic policy is to influence these orientations. However, it is also possible to influence fertility rates through social and demographic policies creating favorable conditions for families to fulfill their desire for children.