Modeling the Situation of Pseudo-Security of the Food Sector of the Region

Abstract

The priority task of the development of any socio-economic system is to ensure economic security. However, during the research of economic security we found that there are states of the social and economic system which are characterised by normal values of indicators and trends from the perspectives of economic security. But, at the same time there are preconditions for unbalancing and regress of the system in the nearest future. We have characterised such tendencies as a situation of pseudo-security. The study aims to identify the situations of pseudo-security. A pseudo-security detection model was developed using the food sector of the region as an example. We assume that the situation of pseudo-security arises as a result of structural imbalances and inconsistencies in production and consumption. The constituent entities of the Urals Federal District, namely the Sverdlovsk, Kurgan, Tyumen and Chelyabinsk regions, were selected as the object of analysis. Food security assessment of the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District showed a high level of their security. Deterministic factor analysis of the structure of production and consumption of basic food products has shown that the food security of these constituent entities is provided exclusively by the production of bread and bread products. An analysis of the structure of consumption also revealed significant deviations in consumption, in particular in the Sverdlovsk region. The calculations revealed the situation of food pseudo-security of the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District. The results can be used to simulate the situation of pseudo-security in other areas of the socio-economic system. © Spatial Economics 2019.