Economic development strategies of regions of Russia: system crisis and new economic space

Abstract

To assess the strength of internal economic space of Russia and the positiveness of the interregional economic relations, the paper investigates the types of economic interaction of federal districts by means of “predator-prey” models. The strategic economic breaks between the European and East parts of the country are revealed. The accelerated economic growth of East part of the country is predicted that will allow to reach about the same volume of Gross Regional Product (GRP) as GRP in the European part of Russia by 2020. With the help of model constructions the typology of integration crises of federal districts with each other is revealed: back-to-back paralyzing of economic activity (A crisis); mutual destruction (B crisis); economic indifference (C crisis); transition of a role of «predator» to the economically weak territories (D crisis). Macroeconomic threat and challenge to the territorial integrity of Russia is proved due to the state support of regions of the North Caucasus Federal District without involvement of intro regional sources of economic growth, and due to the accelerated economic development of the Far East Federal District. The limited opportunities of the Ural Federal District to support the national economy during a crisis at the expense of export of energy carriers is concluded. The thesis about the low sensitivity of the economy of Russia to the increase of the oil world prices, and about sensitivity to the negative external economic conditions are reasonable. Estimates of the GRP decrease in Russia at the various levels of decrease in the world prices for oil (up to 50 US dollars for barrel) are received and given. The package of measures on response to the threats revealing to the internal economic space and territorial integrity of the country is presented. Keywords: regional economy, regional economic integration, federal districts, “predator-prey” model.