Strategic Digital Reality Risks Management Technologies

Abstract

A number of strategic risks are taken into account in the formation and development of computer reality. Moreover, we estimated that the possibility of implementing some risks and the likelihood of other risks are significantly underestimated. Nassim Taleb identified various risks as “Black swans” and “Mandelbrot Grey swans”. They are characterized by power laws of probability density distribution, which makes their parameters difficult to predict. We find ourselves in a “fast world” extensively studied in overcoming the “barrier problem”. Artificial intelligence systems are given “last decisions” based on risk results. This use of digital technology is unacceptable. LEM noted: “unheard-of fast cars make mistakes unheard-of fast,” and the cost of an error can affect the fate of humanity too high. International control mechanisms are needed similar to those that in the XX century restrained the quantitative growth and qualitative improvement of nuclear charges and their means of delivery, as well as to create such weapons. The risk analysis is based on the theory of the humanitarian and technological revolution associated with the transition from the industrial to the post-industrial phase of civilization development. There is a gradual transition from the world of things to the world of people. A bifurcation point is set here, after which different trajectories are possible. One of the further trajectories in the terminology of J.Attali is associated with the era of hypercontrol and the formation of hyperimperia. The founder of the Davos economic forum K. Schwab considers this scenario as the main one. The analysis of the trajectory clarifies the huge risks on this path, as well as the need for efforts to preserve the gains of culture and avoid this scenario. Within the framework of the risk management paradigm, specific measures are proposed to avoid many negative consequences of the introduction of digital technologies.