Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/112157
Title: Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis of Volcanic Activity
Authors: Alexandrov, D. V.
Bashkirtseva, I. A.
Ryashko, L. B.
Issue Date: 2021
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Wiley
Citation: Alexandrov D. V. Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis of Volcanic Activity / D. V. Alexandrov, I. A. Bashkirtseva, L. B. Ryashko // Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences. — 2021. — Vol. 44. — Iss. 16. — P. 12078-12087.
Abstract: In the present paper, we study the stochastically induced behavior of a nonlinear volcanic model containing three prognostic variables: the plug velocity u, the pressure p under the plug, and the conduit volume V. The nouvelle phenomena of noise-induced transitions from the equilibrium to the cycle in the bistability parametric zone and noise-induced excitement with the generation of spike oscillations in the monostability zone are found in the presence of N-shaped friction force. To study these phenomena numerically, we used the computations of random solutions, the phase trajectories and time series, the statistics of interspike intervals, and the mean square variations. To study these phenomena analytically, we applied the stochastic sensitivity function technique and the confidence domains method. This approach is used to predict the noise-induced transition from a “dormant volcano” state to the “active volcano” mode. From the physical point of view, the volcano is capable to become active under the influence of external noises in the friction force, which model various compositions and properties of volcanic rocks. What is more, the volcanic plug can pop out when its slipping becomes heavy, and the volcano can erupt. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords: APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELING
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS
PHASE TRANSITIONS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
FRICTION
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS
TIME SERIES
VOLCANIC ROCKS
CONFIDENCE DOMAIN
INTER-SPIKE INTERVAL
NOISE-INDUCED TRANSITION
PHASE TRAJECTORY
PROGNOSTIC VARIABLES
STOCHASTIC SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
STOCHASTIC SENSITIVITY FUNCTIONS
VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES
VOLCANOES
URI: http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/112157
Access: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
SCOPUS ID: 85088578852
WOS ID: 000552901100001
PURE ID: 23818014
ISSN: 0170-4214
DOI: 10.1002/mma.6717
metadata.dc.description.sponsorship: This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (project number FEUZ‐2020‐0057).
Appears in Collections:Научные публикации ученых УрФУ, проиндексированные в SCOPUS и WoS CC

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