Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/111843
Title: Mathematical Modeling of the Development of Chronic Fluorine Intoxication in Aluminium Industry Workers
Authors: Budkar, L. N.
Obukhova, T. Yu.
Solodushkin, S. I.
Fedoruk, A. A.
Shmonina, O. G.
Karpova, E. A.
Issue Date: 2020
Publisher: Izdatel'stvo Meditsina
Federal Scientific Center for Hygiene F.F.Erisman
Citation: Mathematical Modeling of the Development of Chronic Fluorine Intoxication in Aluminium Industry Workers / L. N. Budkar, T. Yu. Obukhova, S. I. Solodushkin et al. // Gigiena i Sanitariya. — 2020. — Vol. 99. — Iss. 1. — P. 115-119.
Abstract: Introduction. Chronic fluorine intoxication prevails among the newly discovered occupational diseases in aluminum industry workers. Mathematical modeling is one of the helpful tools in ensuring better risk management with respect to the development of occupational fluorosis. Objective. Developing a logistic regression model predicting a probability of occupational fluorosis development in an occupational staff of aluminum plants in order to suggest adequate prophylactic strategies. Material and methods. A logistic regression model predicting a probability of the development of occupational fluorosis in aluminum industry workers of the Sverdlovsk region was constructed. The model embraced the results of a univariate analysis conducted with respect to major occupational exposures and health characteristics of 201 workers. Results. Six major factors were identified as being predictive of occupational fluorosis development in aluminum industry workers: age (fluorosis risk increases with age); type 2 diabetes mellitus; atrophic gastritis; kidney cysts; X-ray examination data (fluorosis risk increases with the stage as determined by X-ray); the hydro fluoride concentration increases by more than 2 occupational exposure limits. The developed model was verified by clinical cases and showed a high predictive ability (86.2 %). Both sensitivity (true positive rate) and specificity (true negative rate) of the model amounted to 86.2 %. Conclusion. By multivariate analysis the significant, mutually independent factors were identified, their combination being associated with chronic fluorine intoxication in an occupational staff of aluminum plants. The developed mathematical model has a high predictive ability and can be recommended as a sure tool to forecast the course of occupational fluorosis development in the workers at the aluminum industry. © 2020 Izdatel'stvo Meditsina. All rights reserved.
Keywords: ALUMINUM INDUSTRY
FLUOROSIS RISK FACTORS
LOGISTIC REGRESSION
OCCUPATIONAL FLUOROSIS
PROGNOSTIC MODEL
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/111843
Access: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
SCOPUS ID: 85081267474
PURE ID: 12262512
ISSN: 0016-9900
metadata.dc.description.sponsorship: The work of Solodushkin was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract No 02.A03.21.0006.
Appears in Collections:Научные публикации, проиндексированные в SCOPUS и WoS CC

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