Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/103370
Title: Fuzzy logic modeling software for educational paths data analysis
Authors: Tarasyev, A. A.
Ospina, Acosta, C. A.
Agarkov, G. A.
Issue Date: 2020
Publisher: American Institute of Physics Inc.
Citation: Tarasyev A. A. Fuzzy logic modeling software for educational paths data analysis / A. A. Tarasyev, C. A. Ospina Acosta, G. A. Agarkov. — DOI 10.1063/5.0027176 // AIP Conference Proceedings. — 2020. — Vol. 2293. — 120005.
Abstract: Recent trends in the global education system are leading to the increasing competition in the field of higher education, which represent a big challenge for the universities participating in major rankings such as QS and THE. To improve the efficiency of the University, it is necessary to adjust its educational trajectories and programs in such a way as to meet the expectations of the student and the needs of the labor market. To describe the individual choice of the educational path, we used an econometric model, which takes into account the economic motivation of a potential student. Based on this model, we made a reasonable forecast of the future professional choice of students and their future income. After evaluating the amount of possible alternative educational paths for students, we made an estimation of the probability of a student changing of educational path using fuzzy logic model of Mamdani type. According to this approach, the probability of changing the educational trajectory for the student is calculated based on panel data, taking into account the amount of possible directions of graduation and educational paths of the student, the possibility of budgetary support of the graduation and the expected level of wages after graduation. To estimate the probability we developed a set of rules of the fuzzy inference system, designed to simulate the human behavior of making the decision of change between one and another educational path. The proposed architecture of the educational process analysis system (EPAS) provides educational institutions with the opportunity to establish business rules in accordance with their own needs. Based on this model, it is possible to analyze the impact of students' choice on the economic sectors development. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
Keywords: BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS
ECONOMIC EXPECTANCIES
EDUCATIONAL PATHS
FUZZY LOGIC
HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM
MATHEMATICAL ECONOMIC MODELING
MODELLING THEORY
OPTIMIZATION METHODS
SYSTEMS BEHAVIOR
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/103370
Access: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
SCOPUS ID: 85097993131
PURE ID: 20388317
7abff39a-95e1-45ab-a408-d641642643ce
ISSN: 0094243X
ISBN: 9780735440258
DOI: 10.1063/5.0027176
metadata.dc.description.sponsorship: The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract N 02.A03.21.0006.
Appears in Collections:Научные публикации, проиндексированные в SCOPUS и WoS CC

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