Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/101962
Title: Diagnostics of the technical condition of electric network equipment based on fuzzy expert estimates
Authors: Kokin, S.
Manusov, V.
Ahyoev, J.
Dmitriev, S.
Tavlintsev, A.
Safaraliev, M.
Issue Date: 2020
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
Citation: Diagnostics of the technical condition of electric network equipment based on fuzzy expert estimates / S. Kokin, V. Manusov, J. Ahyoev, et al. — DOI 10.1016/j.egyr.2020.11.017 // Energy Reports. — 2020. — Vol. 6. — P. 1383-1390.
Abstract: The paper describes a new possible method of diagnostics of the current technical condition of equipment using a mathematical model based on fuzzy expert estimates and the theory of fuzzy sets. The specifics of the task is determined mainly by the type of the obtained estimates, namely: causal relationships between the controlled parameters of the transformer equipment and defects that could entail their change and the possibility of further operation of the facility. At the same time, attention is paid to the problem of the degree of consistency of expert opinions that affects the quality of the assessment of the current technical condition of the studied object. The paper provides a comparative analysis of the arithmetic mean estimates and median estimates of the consistency of expert opinions. It is shown that the significant drawback of the arithmetic mean approach is its instability towards outliers of individual opinions moving the resulting value under the influence of the “dissident expert opinions”. On the other hand, the median estimate is free of such shortage; it is more outlier-resistant and simply discards a part of radically outlying expert opinions. For the first time, the Kemeny median has been used for technical diagnostics. Kemeny median is based on the introduction of a metric to the set of expert opinions, and axiomatic introduction of the distance between them. Also, the paper formulates a criterion on how to determine the optimal number of experts in the group. © 2020
Keywords: COEFFICIENT OF CONCORDANCE
CURRENT STATE
DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS
EXPERT ESTIMATES
FUZZY CAUSAL RELATIONS
FUZZY LOGIC
KEMENY MEDIAN
TECHNICAL DIAGNOSTICS
CIRCUIT THEORY
STATISTICS
ARITHMETIC MEAN
CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
CONTROLLED PARAMETER
NETWORK EQUIPMENT
TECHNICAL CONDITIONS
TECHNICAL DIAGNOSTICS
THEORY OF FUZZY SETS
ESTIMATION
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/101962
Access: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
SCOPUS ID: 85098873711
PURE ID: 20452340
ae369921-8d27-44b2-9d60-4f69802b23cb
ISSN: 23524847
DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2020.11.017
Appears in Collections:Научные публикации, проиндексированные в SCOPUS и WoS CC

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