Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/101882
Title: Nonlinear mean-field dynamo and prediction of solar activity
Authors: Safiullin, N.
Kleeorin, N.
Porshnev, S.
Rogachevskii, I.
Ruzmaikin, A.
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Citation: Nonlinear mean-field dynamo and prediction of solar activity / N. Safiullin, N. Kleeorin, S. Porshnev, et al. — DOI 10.1017/S0022377818000600 // Journal of Plasma Physics. — 2018. — Vol. 84. — Iss. 3. — 735840306.
Abstract: We apply a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model which includes a budget equation for the dynamics of Wolf numbers to predict solar activity. This dynamo model takes into account the algebraic and dynamic nonlinearities of the α effect, where the equation for the dynamic nonlinearity is derived from the conservation law for the magnetic helicity. The budget equation for the evolution of the Wolf number is based on a formation mechanism of sunspots related to the negative effective magnetic pressure instability. This instability redistributes the magnetic flux produced by the mean-field dynamo. To predict solar activity on the time scale of one month we use a method based on a combination of the numerical solution of the nonlinear mean-field dynamo equations and the artificial neural network. A comparison of the results of the prediction of the solar activity with the observed Wolf numbers demonstrates a good agreement between the forecast and observations. © 2018 Cambridge University Press. All rights reserved.
Keywords: ASTROPHYSICAL PLASMAS
PLASMA NONLINEAR PHENOMENA
SPACE PLASMA PHYSICS
BUDGET CONTROL
CONTROL NONLINEARITIES
DYNAMICS
FORECASTING
INTERACTIVE DEVICES
LAWS AND LEGISLATION
MAGNETISM
NEURAL NETWORKS
NUMERICAL METHODS
SOLAR ENERGY
SOLAR RADIATION
ASTROPHYSICAL PLASMA
DYNAMIC NON LINEARITIES
FORMATION MECHANISM
MAGNETIC HELICITY
NON-LINEAR PHENOMENA
NUMERICAL SOLUTION
PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY
SPACE PLASMA PHYSICS
NONLINEAR EQUATIONS
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/101882
Access: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
SCOPUS ID: 85059455239
PURE ID: 8339140
ISSN: 223778
DOI: 10.1017/S0022377818000600
Appears in Collections:Научные публикации, проиндексированные в SCOPUS и WoS CC

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