Прогнозирование энерго- и нефтепотребления автомобильным транспортом в регионах Российской Федерации

Abstract

The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the economic, social and institutional features. We formalized the dynamic (trend) model for predicting the effectiveness of energy consumption per unit of the vehicle in Russia with details on Federal districts. In the study, in predicting the number of motor transport, the authors applied the methods of economic and mathematical simulation modelling based on the results of the econometric analysis for the calculation of the population having motor transport. In determining the potential specific energy consumption, we have aggregated trending patterns and convergence. The study has shown that by 2040, the number of passenger cars in Russia will grow to 57.1 million, and the total number of all types of road transport will grow by 14.9 million units to 66.2 million. The highest growth rates are predicted in the Central regions of Russia and in some areas of Siberia. The smallest growth rates are expected in the Chukotka Autonomous District, Kamchatka and Primorsky regions. Energy efficiency in transport and active introduction of alternative motor fuels, primarily methane, will reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel by motor transport. Thus, in the forecast period of 2018-2040, the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport will be reduced by 8.9 million tons: From 61,9 million tons of oil to 51.7 million tons of oil. The results of the study can be applied for the formulation of proposals on the creation of scientific and methodological apparatus to predict the development of transport sector and oil products supply in of the regions of Russia.

Предложены направления совершенствования методического подхода к прогнозированию энергопотребления на транспорте, учитывающие индивидуальные особенности регионов России. Построена многофункциональная модель, позволяющая прогнозировать обеспеченность населения автомобильным транспортом с детализацией по субъектам Федерации в зависимости от экономических, социальных, институциональных особенностей. Описана динамическая модель прогнозирования эффективности потребления энергии на единицу автотранспортного средства в России с детализацией по федеральным округам.