Управление предприятием на основе прогноза в ассортиментном пространстве

Abstract

The article discusses the forecasting method based on the research of the behaviour of the line of total production of the companies-competitors in the product area, first of all, what products and how much to produce. Therefore, if to monitor developments in multi-dimensional space, whose coordinates are the volumes of production and demand for all types of products from the range, now mastered, then this picture will reflect the major events taking place in the market and determine the location of the enterprise. Naturally, it is very convenient, on the basis of the multidimensional space, to predict the main trends and strategize the behaviour of the enterprise. The aim of this study is to search for the forecasting method in this multidimensional product area and its substantiation. Every company in this area can be represented by a multidimensional parallelepiped, whose diagonal in an integrated manner displays the capabilities of the enterprise for the production of the whole range. If in this area, we consistently combine the angles of parallelepipeds for all competitors, the corner of the last parallelepiped will indicate the total capacity of all competing companies for filling the market with products. Accordingly, the "missing" vector drawn to the point reflecting the market needs, determines a parallelepiped for the selected enterprise, for which the prognosis is being made. Changing the coordinate system with the transfer of its start point to the point showing the market allows to narrow the forecasting to the study of the point on the curve in the new area. The main characteristics of the proposed forecasting method is a visual geometric representation of the developed strategy of enterprise management. It considerably simplifies the forecasting process. The experimental research has confirmed the efficiency of this forecasting method and revealed the superiority of active management strategies.

Предложен метод прогнозирования, основанный на исследовании поведения линии суммарного производства предприятий-конкурентов в ассортиментном пространстве, в первую очередь, того, какую продукцию и в каких объемах производить. Рассмотрены прогностические и системно-аналитические возможности агент-ориентированного моделирования процесса управления предприятием в многомерном ассортиментном пространстве.