Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/91502
Title: Агент-ориентированная модель Евразии и имитация реализации крупных инфраструктурных проектов
Other Titles: An agent-based model of eurasia and simulation of consequences of large infrastructure projects
Authors: Makarov, V. L.
Bakhtizin, A. R.
Sushko, E. D.
Ageeva, A. F.
Макаров, В. Л.
Бахтизин, А. Р.
Сушко, Е. Д.
Агеева, А. Ф.
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Институт экономики Уральского отделения РАН
Citation: Агент-ориентированная модель Евразии и имитация реализации крупных инфраструктурных проектов / В. Л. Макаров, А. Р. Бахтизин, Е. Д. Сушко, А. Ф. Агеева. — DOI 10.17059/2018-4-4. — Текст : электронный // Экономика региона. — 2018. — Том 14, выпуск 4. — С. 1102-1116.
Abstract: The implementation of large infrastructure projects has a significant impact on the spatial location of production and change of trade flows. It causes the changes in migration flows and influences the socio-economic development of territories involved in the project. Preliminary assessment of the consequences of the implementation of similar projects requires the use of models. One of the modern directions of simulating is the agent-based approach. It allows to recreate a structure and behaviour of real socioeconomic systems in an artificial environment and to imitate their behaviour if external conditions change. The realism of the simulation of the main socio-economic processes determines the success of pursuing agent-based models to meet the challenges of forecasting. The article describes the construction of the agent-based model of the countries of Eurasia, imitating the basic processes of population movement in these countries, as well as the consequences of implementing large infrastructure projects as a result of the actions of many independent agents. There are two types of agents in the model: a) countries that are capable of lobbying for the implementation of profitable projects, and b) people who live in these countries, who create families, give birth to children and choose the type of activity and place of residence. In agents behaviour’s algorithm, we consider factors, revealed as a result of the research of actual migration processes in the countries of Eurasia. This has allowed to recreate in the model the imitation of people’s behaviour close to reality. The model construction was tested for two routes of New Silk Road. During the experiments, we monitored the changes of economic and demographic indicators for each participating country. Thus, for Russia the growth of total trade turnover (9.6 %) and net export (1.5 %) was observed. Participation in the project gave to China the growth 3.8 % and 7.7 %, respectively. The small countries (Georgia, Bulgaria) showed the reduction of migration outflow and improvement of age structure of the population. The model can be used for preliminary assessment of the consequences of the large infrastructure projects implementation. © 2018 Institute of Economics Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Предложена конструкция агент-ориентированной модели стран Евразии, имитирующей демографические процессы в этих странах. Представлена оценка экономических эффектов от реализации вариантов проекта Нового шелкового пути.
Keywords: A STUDY OF AN OBJECT BEHAVIOUR BASED ON ITS DIGITAL MODEL
AGENT-BASED MODELLING
ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION PROCESSES IN EURASIA
ARTIFICIAL SOCIETY
DEMOGRAPHY
DIGITAL SIMULATION OF SYSTEMS
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
LABOUR MIGRATION
SOFTWARE
THE IMPACT OF LARGE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS ON POPULATION MIGRATION
TYPES OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10995/91502
metadata.dc.rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
SCOPUS ID: 85062055863
WOS ID: 000452214100004
ISSN: 2072-6414
2411-1406
DOI: 10.17059/2018-4-4
metadata.dc.description.sponsorship: The article has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No 16-18-10296).
RSCF project card: 16-18-10296
Origin: Экономика региона. 2018. Том 14, выпуск 4
Appears in Collections:Economy of Region

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