Стратегическое планирование энергоэффективного развития субъекта Российской Федерации

Abstract

When developing regional strategies, the effectiveness of energy solutions must be linked to the overall economic efficiency of regional development, since the targets for energy-efficient development may conflict with the objectives of the regional economy as a whole. In the article, the task of energy-efficient development of a region of the Russian Federation is reduced to the search for the agreed scenarios of the development of fuel and energy complex (FEC) and the regional economy. These scenarios allow achieving a maximum approximation to the stated goals for the set of energy and economic indicators. I have developed a model of the FEC of a region as a dynamic CGE-model. It is developed as a part of the general model of the socio-economic activity of a region. This model represents the interrelated processes of production, processing, transportation and the use of all types of fuel and energy resources in a region. I propose the forecasting methodology of balanced development of the economy and fuel and energy complex. This methodology provides iterative harmonization of forecasts for consumption and production of energy based on regional fuel and energy balance (FEB). At the same time, the FEB developed within the framework of the FEC model is a part of the overall product-sector balance of the economy, which plays the role of the “balance of balances”. It allows to simulate the interaction of FEC and the rest of the economy through inter-balance relations. Based on the developed methods and models, I have implemented the information technology of situation forecasting and strategic planning in the form of forecasting and analytical tool. This tool simulates the scenarios of energy-efficient development of the economy of the Samara region. As an example, the article presents the assessment of energy efficiency for an option of Samara region development according to the target scenario of Russia's Energy Strategy for the period up to 2035. © 2018 Economy of Region. All rights reserved.

Разработана динамическая многоотраслевая модель топливно-энергетического комплекса в составе общей модели социально-экономической деятельности региона, которая формирует взаимосвязанные процессы производства, переработки, транспортировки и использования всех видов топливно-энергетических ресурсов в регионе. Предложена методология прогнозирования сбалансированного развития экономики и топливно-энергетического комплекса. Приведена оценка энергоэффективного развития экономики Самарской области.