ЕКАТЕРИНБУРГ НА ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОЙ КАРТЕ РОССИИ: РЕАЛИИ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

Abstract

In 2009 demographers from the Institute of Economics of the Ural branch of Russian Academy of Sciences worked out the demographic forecast in the context of the “General plan for development of the municipal entity “Ekaterinburg”. The paper deals with the scientific approach to demographic forecasting. Particular attention was given to the suggested algorithm of tabulation referred to long-range population size based on the technique of ageing and the component method (with the dynamics of fertility, survival and migration of the population of different age and sex taken into consideration). In conclusion, the authors analyze an estimated population size and age-sex structure in terms of two scenarios of demographic development of the municipal entity “Ekaterinburg” until 2030.</div>