Prognostication of regional energy system development

Abstract

This paper analyzes practice and development of new methodological approaches to forecasting the development of regional energy systems. It is shown that the energy complex is involved in a variety of forward and backward linkages as an element of socio-economic systems, and the quality and availability of energy resources largely determines the structure and pace of economic, social and environmental development of the region. Analysis of existing current practice of territorial and sectoral forecasting implemented in Russia and abroad, suggests that such practice is inadequate in its theoretical and methodological elaboration. This is confirmed by the frequent discrepancy between actual results and plans, as well as their regular revision. The methods are mostly based on extrapolation of existing tendencies and not taking into account many factors and emerging trends related to the complexity and openness of the social and economic systems. Post-industrial level of civilization is characterized by fast development of technology; knowledge, information, technological and institutional innovation become the main resources. The greatest importance is attached to such development properties as instability, various orderliness, nonlinearity, interactions etc. Current approaches to forecasting the future are described by a number of theories that are generally called self-organization theory, taking into account these singularities. These concepts should be included in the theoretical basis for the development and implementation of regional development forecasts. Using the synergetic approach assumes that, along with organizational processes, processes of self-organization and self-development are very important in the system, they are characterized by spontaneous, unexpected formations and emerging structures. The development of such systems can generate stable and efficient new structure. The presence of crisis is an integral feature of complex systems development, non-equilibrium is a necessary condition for the appearance of a new organization, new order and new systems. The above theoretical propositions complement the methodological basis of forecasting and force to develop methodological tools which correspond to modern requirements.