On the strategy of modernization and development of Russian economy in a global depression

Abstract

This paper reveals the essence of the program proposed by author on preemptive measures to develop the Russian economy in terms of a global depression. The distinctive features of the present global crisis and the prospects of overcoming it are identified. We propose three possible scenarios for the world economy after the crisis: 1) the scenario of quick withdrawal to a long wave of economic growth (optimistic); 2) the catastrophic scenario; 3) the inertial scenario. The key idea of forming a national strategy for accelerated development lies in: the timely establishment of basic industries, the new technological order and early withdrawal of the Russian economy on the associated new long wave of growth, increasing the power of multiple domestic banking and investment system; economic stabilization and creating a zone of sustainable development in the regions of the Eurasian Economic Community and the CIS. Taking into account the experience of anti-crisis policy of foreign countries, strategic mistakes in the planning of anti-crisis measures are identified. In the analysis of national anti-crisis policies and assessing the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures it is justified that the same mistakes were made in Russia. To overcome them, it is required to provide consistency of macroeconomic policies with the priorities of long-term economic and technological development. It might be achieved by concentrating resources on the development of advanced industrial and technological systems that require dedicated work of the national financial and investment system, including the mechanisms of monetary, fiscal and foreign exchange policy. Conceptual parameters of the strategic planning system that can identify promising areas of economic growth as well as guide the development of state institutions to implement them are formulated. The elements of such a system created in Russia in recent years and requiring its introduction are defined. The efficiency of the proposed measures of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate, industrial and social policy is substantiated. It is proposed to target: tax policy on the reduction of the tax burden on all kinds of innovative and high-tech activities, priority allocation of budgetary resources on the support of critically important state expenditures on the formation of a new technological structure, monetary and exchange rate policy on the expansion of reproduction and formation of a new technological system nucleus, protection of the Russian financial market from outside threats, expanding the use of rubles in international settlements, industrial policy - on the stimulation of growth points in the overall depressed environment, social policy - on the maintenance of an acceptable level of social infrastructure and the capacity for self-realization of the citizens. Thus, in this paper the main formulated points can be used to update the strategy of modernization and economic development in Russia in terms of the global depression.