Forecasting the development of regional economy on the basis of input — output tables

Abstract

The article presents a practical technology of forecasting the development of the regional economy, including the statement of the problem, the construction of a mathematical model, and its implementation. At the constructing of a model, the standard statistical data for the previous period (2011), built on the basis of the table “input — output” are used. A unit of output of final demand, resulting from investments is added. As a result, a model of the regional economy made in the form of a vector mathematical programming problem that takes into account the investment processes in a region is obtained. Its purpose is to maximize the production of final demand in a region (all industries in a region) within the constraints of the input-output balance, investments, resource costs and capacities. For solving linear programming problems of vector, methods, based on the principle of normalization criteria and guaranteed result are used. Vector dynamics problem is solved in a specified number of years. The factors taking into account the rate of growth: gross volumes (resources), final demand, investment in every sector of the region are introduced. Numerical implementation of the prediction is shown in the test case economic modeling of Primorsky Krai, including fifteen branches of a three-year period in accordance with the requirements of the Budget Code. Results of the solution include the major economic indicators for a region: gross, gross regional product (GRP), investments (including broken by industry), as well as payroll taxes and other. All these economic indicators are the basis for the formation of budget revenues in a region.