Assessment of socio-economic potential of regions for placement of the logistic infrastructure objects

Abstract

Currently, at the regional markets, there is a disproportion between the growing demand for transportation and logistics services and the availability of facilities needed for their implementation, which is because the high logistics costs and does not meet the strategic objectives of the country to create a common economic space. The article describes the system of market factors that have the most significant influence on the distribution of logistics facilities. Study and evaluation of potential changes in the region of logistics facility disposition are proposed to perform using simulation techniques and statistical data analysis. The article presents the engineered multivariate statistical models that control the kind and effect of correlation between socio-economic development factors of regions, as well as a simulation model, which allows to assess the dynamics of these factors and predict demand for logistics infrastructure facilities. The choice of region (subject) dislocation of the logistics center is proposed to realize by the developed technique based on the calculation of the integrated index that takes into account differences in the level of socio-economic and infrastructural development of the regions. This technique in conjunction with a simulation model is applicable to a variety of administrative and territorial levels (region, city) and allows to take into account both the current demand in the logistics infrastructure and demand dynamics. The technique given in the article can be used to assess the level of attractiveness of the Russian Federation in the development of public and private investment projects for the development of logistics infrastructure.