Comprehensive estimation model of MERGE: adaptation to current state of world economy

Abstract

The optimizing interdisciplinary MERGE model meant mainly for quantitative estimation of outcomes of various nature protection strategy is one of the tools used for studying the climate change problems. Components of a model are the economical and power module, climatic module and module of damage assessment. The main attention in work is paid to the MERGE model adaptation to a world economy current state, and analysis of possible trajectories of economic development of Russia and studying of consequences of country participation in initiatives for emission abatement of greenhouse gases at the various assumptions on dynamics of regional economic and power indicators. As a source of model scenarios of development of the Russian economy, the forecast of long-term socioeconomic development of the country for the period up to 2030 is used. They made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (namely, the conservative, innovative and forced scenarios defined by different models of state policy for ensuring macroeconomic balance are considered).