Conceptual foresight of the volumes of postal money orders in the Republic of Komi

Abstract

This paper describes a methodology elaborated for forecasting the volume of postal services on the basis of statistical methods of regression analysis on the example of the Republic of Komi. The influence of internal and external factors on the market of postal money orders of the Republic is constructed and investigated using the statistical regression model of the market of postal money orders of the Komi Republic in the period of 2005–2010. The conceptual foresight of development of the regional market of postal money orders for 2011–2012 is presented. Regression models were analyzed not only for the dynamic sequence of data, but also for sequences of data on territories, which revealed independent correlated factors which are weakly changing and evolving over time. The presented results have important practical and methodological significance for predicting both the volume of postal money orders as well as other types of services.