The Impact of Political Risk on the Economic Efficiency of Russian Renewable Energy Projects

Abstract

This article is the second of the author’s works devoted to a comprehensive study of the economic efficiency of Russian renewable energy (RE) projects. The main goal of this paper is to study the level of influence of political risk on the economic efficiency of RE projects that are implemented in the Russian energy market using a state support program. Fifty-two solar, wind and small hydropower projects, which have received support in the form of a capacity-based support scheme in 2018-2020, were selected as objects of research. The methodological basis of the work was the classical methods of investment analysis and specific industry approach. They were supplemented with the author’s tool for calculating the monetary equivalent of political risk that takes into account the probability of the termination of support from the state. The practice-based assessment utilized the developed scenarios depending on changes in foreign and domestic international credit ratings of the country. The study of the impact of political risk for three stages of RE projects was carried out. Based on the results of the analysis, conclusions were drawn about generally insignificant influence of political risk on the economic efficiency of Russian RE projects. Recommendations for the development of state support programs in the event of the impact of political risks only were generated. The obtained research results are of practical and methodological value. It will be used in studying the impact of other specific risks on the effectiveness of Russian RE projects, as well as in developing recommendations enabling the Russian RE market to give up state support.