Методология оценки влияния экономической неопределенности на формирование доходов региональных бюджетов

Abstract

The sharp increase of the impact of economic uncertainty causes the decrease in the stability of the revenue bases of the constituent entities' budgets. An analysis of domestic and foreign theory and practice leads to the conclusion that there is no systematic research on this topic. Moreover, the budget revenue management does not take into account the impact of economic uncertainty due to the lack of relevant methodology. We hypothesise that the existing approaches to assessment primarily aim at analysing the formation of corporate financial resources in the context of economic uncertainty. That peculiarity does not allow adapting these approaches to the study of the economy's public sector and the state budget system. Based on the identified characteristics of economic uncertainty, we compiled a comprehensive assessment methodology using a number of statistical methods. This required the development of a new methodology for assessing the regional budget's revenue potential and a methodology for assessing the impact of the classified factors of economic uncertainty. The identified types of budget revenues played an important role in establishing the methodology. The developed mathematical model logically linked the indicated methods and the revenues typology. The model presupposes calculation of the aggregate impact of economic uncertainty based on the methods of linear algebra. We tested the methodology on the example of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the Central Federal District. The testing has allowed establishing and quantifying the link between the regional budgets' revenue structure, the impact of economic uncertainty and the budgets' stability. In addition, based on the obtained results, we proposed the development of a special roadmap and specific tool for monitoring the impact of economic uncertainty on the regional budgets' revenues. The developed methodology can be used both in the practical activities of the regional financial authorities (including Federal Tax Service of Russia) and in scientific research. © 2019 Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Сформулирована теоретическая основа методологии оценки влияния экономической неопределенности на доходы региональных бюджетов. Дано определение экономической неопределенности, представлены ее характерные признаки.