The multiplier accelerator theory in the study of municipal-level investment

Abstract

In our research we specially adapted the multiplier accelerator approach for analysis of investment processes on the municipal level. We analyzed the databases of municipalities of the Bashkortostan Republic and found a one-year lag and ratchet effects in the development of investment processes, which manifested themselves through steady rates of growth in the volumes of shipped goods and services in these areas while the amount of investment was declining. Excessively high values of the investment accelerator in certain municipalities were explained, on the one hand, by the insignificant changes in the economic performance of these municipalities and, on the other hand, by the inflow of capital, which was not related to the incentive function of return from the previous investment. The main causes of the disincentive function include the low investment attractiveness of the territories; the poorly developed environment for investment stimulation; the inefficiency of the investment itself; and its short-term character. Our approach combines the multiplier accelerator theory with the concept of efficient management of investment in socio-economic systems of various levels and thus it has enabled us to develop a matrix for diagnostics of investment processes by calculating investment efficiency (with the help of the investment multiplier) and the focus of the investment process (with the help of the investment accelerator). Upon these results we have mapped municipalities according to their levels of investment development and proposed a differentiated approach to managerial decision-making. These findings can be used to study investment attractiveness on the municipal level and to develop guidelines for assessment of investment attractiveness and for managerial decision-making to enhance investment efficiency.