ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА РЕГИОНА В УСЛОВИЯХ ДЕФИЦИТА ИНФОРМАЦИИ

Abstract

The new approach to forecasting economic growth of the region, showing minimal requirements to a supply with information, is offered in clause. It is based on combinatory likelihood modelling of dependence of a parameter of economic growth from its reliability. The method we shall apply to regions with the expressed branch specialization for the period before realization of structural reorganization of economy. In the conclusion the forecast of growth of Republic Komi VRP up to 2020 is given − is shown, that it will make 4 − 6% a year at preservation of energy raw specializations.