What does the clean energy transition look like for Russian oil exports?

Abstract

The commitment of governments to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and the expected decrease in fossil fuel consumption indicate the importance of studying the risks facing the oil exporters and the range of options and responses. This study adopts the Trade Gravity model to examine the effect of clean energy policies on Russian oil exports during the period 1996–2019. Our results based on Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lags modeling suggest that Russian oil exports are negatively affected by the energy transitions. This indicates that investing in cleaner energy technologies as a channel toward reducing fossil fuel demand can reduce the oil trade globally. Policies and strategies to retain and support the financial stability of the Russian government under the current scenario are suggested. © 2022 The Authors. Energy Science & Engineering published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.